Green gram weekly price forecasting using time series model

Abstract

This paper proposes a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model for forecasting weekly price for Green gram which was taken from the period of January 2004 to July 2018 from AGMARK NET website and evaluates its performance by comparing it with ARIMA models with respect to MAPE criterion. The forecast (With GARCH model) shows the range of market prices of the green gram will be of Rs. 5,350 – 5,577 per quintal during July to September 2018.

Este trabajo propone un modelo Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) para predecir el precio semanal de la soja verde que se tomó desde enero de 2004 hasta julio de 2018 en el sitio web de AGMARK NET y evalúa su rendimiento comparándolo con modelos de ARIMA con respecto al criterio de MAPE. La previsión (con modelo GARCH) muestra la gama de precios de mercado del gramo verde será de Rs. 5,350-5,577 por quintal durante julio a septiembre de 2018.